By observing the election results in 17th March, we have a scenario showing that Portugal turned to the right. Social Democrats Party recovers the Government, lost in 1995 to the Socialists; the Popular Party (PP), despite losing a deputy, is the major winner and become the 3rd national political force. The left lost in unison: the Socialist Party lost the Government, but only 2,3% less than the Social Democrat Party; the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) lost 5 deputies, becoming the most penalised force; the "Bloco de Esquerda" (The Left Bloc) win a new deputy, however the left is in minority in the Parliament, so their power also decreased.

Since there was no viability to form a government of a minority party, the social democrats forms a coalition with the Popular Party and forms a coalition post electoral denominated "Democratic Convergence". During this presentation, you'll see that this coalition, wished by Popular Party, but not wished by Social Democrat Party, was only constituted due to the force of election results.

However, the important to define is if there has been a turn to the right because of the right real values, or if the changing of the Portuguese political scenario was due to a need of change.

My opinion is that the second explanation has more meaning. Portugal is more than ever in a bipolarised field centre-right (SDP) and centre-left (SP). Hardly, the government will escape from one of these two forces. However, the Portuguese appreciate the loyalty, the transparency, the leadership and the objectivity.

These values failed in the last months of socialists' government. Therefore, in the first opportunity the Portuguese had to penalise the Socialist party, and more precisely his leader António Guterres.

Another important fact of these elections is that even though the victory of social democrats, with a small difference on socialists results, the party did not achieved the absolute majority. After several appeals on the side of social democrats, they are far away from a majority government. The so wanted PP useful vote did not switched to the social democrats. In my opinion, this is due to the non-confidence that Mr. Durão Barroso inspires in the Portuguese. The social democrats leader never enjoyed high popularity among the Portuguese electors, and some fragilities demonstrated during the campaign, evidenced even more this situation.

As far as the future of this government is concerned, its basis is on the commitment that Mr. Durão Barroso has to establish with Mr. Portas, in objectivity, technical capacity and leadership imposed by the new government.

In general, the critics and public opinion are giving the benefit of doubt, but the incoming months are going to be decisive.

To better understand the actual political Portuguese scenario, we have to go back to December 16th 2001, by the time of the estimates after polling stations closed for municipality elections, and then analyse the electoral campaign to the extraordinaire legislative election and its results.