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Innsbruck 2002 EAPC • Europe Meeting • May 1 to 4, 2002 • Innsbruck /Austria Speeches  Horst Becker
Erhard Busek Michael Carmichael
Ana Fernandes Peter Frei
Helmut Mader Dominik Meier
Joe Napolitan
Fritz Plasser Guido Schommer Carlo Willeit
Horst Becker The Situation, seven months before the general election in Germany The outcome of the general elections in September 2002 is still wide open and is expected to be a close head-to-head race. The electorate is extremely volatile. No party can be certain, that today's supporters will bevoters in September. Though many people are displeased with the federal government, there is no current mood for a change. During the last few months, the ruling parties SPD and Grüne couldn't reach a majority of potential voters in the polls. On the other hand, the CDU/CSU and FDP opposition couldn't poll a majority, either. The two central issues of the campaign will be economy and employment. CDU/CSU areregarded as more qualified in this field. The ruling parties are hoping for an economic recovery in the summer. If this is the case, they could accuse the CDU/CSU and their candidate of trying to talk Germany into a crisis. If the CDU/CSU establish immigration as a campaign issue, this could result in a strong polarisation of society. They could mobilise their own supporters on this issue, but they wouldface strong opposition from the church, the business sector and the unions. The SPD will try to establish the more emotional family issue, since a majority of the population attributes more competence to the SPD in this field. Chancellor Gerhard Schröder is clearly more popular than the CDU/CSU candidate, Edmund Stoiber. Schröder is better liked, is considered to be a good representative for Germany and is much more of a television personality than Stoiber. Edmund Stoiber is considered to be proficient, especially in the central issue of the economy. There will be two televised debates between the two contenders before the September election. The outcome of these debates will certainly influence the votes of people who are still indecisive about their vote or who are only slightly interested in politics. By now, the outlines of the parties' campaigns are known: The SPD is focusing on Gerhard Schröder. ("It's the chancellor, stupid") The CDU/CSU is conducting a "campaign of competence", with the central issues being the economy, employment and immigration. The Liberals (FDP) are aiming to become the third party behind the two main parties. Theyalso don't want to commit to working with one of the big parties before the election. They want to leave open the possibility of a coalition with either SPD or CDU/CSU. The FDP has a target of 18% of the vote. Although unrealistic, this signals optimism. The Green Party, for the first time, decided to put only one person on their campaign posters: their very popular foreign minister Joschka Fischer. |
